TIMES ONLINE

November 13, 2004

Abandoned Armenia faces extinction
BY JEREMY PAGE

One in three has left the impoverished state of Armenia since it gained independence and the young are leading the rush

SVETLANA SIMONYAN wants her children to come home.

Her daughter, Narine, was the first to leave Armenia, moving to Russia with her husband in 1998. Artur, her eldest son, headed for Volgograd in 2000. His brother, Armen, followed in 2002 — the last of the Simonyan children to join a decade-long exodus that has made Armenia one of the world’s fastest disappearing nations.

“They couldn’t find work. They just couldn’t afford to live here,” said Mrs Simonyan, wholives with her disabled husband in the village of Sasunik, a former state grape farm an hour’s drive from Yerevan.

She does not blame her children. They were just three of an estimated one million people — a third of the population — who have left Armenia since it gained independence from the crumbling Soviet Union.

But she, like many Armenians, worries that the relentless outflow threatens the existence of the state that her people struggled for so long to create.

“If there are no systemic changes in Armenia, we could face a catastrophe,” says Vardan Gevorgyan, a sociologist. “We will not disappear as an ethnic or cultural group in the world, but we will cease to be an effective republic.”

Already more Armenians, four million, live outside the country than inside after successive waves of emigration going back centuries. They send back more than $1 billion a year — nearly double the Government’s entire budget.

The extent of the demographic crisis, however, depends on which statistics you believe. And that depends on your politics. This year, the results of a 2001 census recorded a population of 3.2 million. “I’d like to take those numbers at face value,” says Vartan Oksanyan, the Foreign Minister. “Emigration numbers have dwindled. The economy is doing better. There are more jobs.”

But opposition politicians and many sociologists put the real population as low as 2 million. They say that the discrepancy is due to the number of emigrants still registered as Armenian citizens because they are living illegally abroad.

The village of Sasunik is a perfect example. Hajkaz Gulanyan, head of the local government, says that its official population is 3,300, but in reality it is just 2,400. Over the past five years a quarter have left — some to Germany and the Netherlands but most to Russia, which Armenians can enter without visas.

“It may sound a little harsh, but it seems we are a nation of emigrants,” he says over coffee in his dilapidated headquarters. “Personally, I don’t think you should live just where you can find work and food to eat. You should stay in your homeland.”

The exodus is especially painful for Armenians because of their long history of suffering.

In the past century alone, between 500,000 and 1.5 million Armenians were killed by the Turks and up to 200,000 Armenians died in the Soviet Army in the Second World War. Tens of thousands more were killed in the war with Azerbaijan in the early 1990s. Also, an earthquake in 1988 claimed more than 25,000 lives.

Most of today’s émigrés are young, male and educated, the ones the country needs to survive. The result is a vicious demographic cycle — fewer marriages, a lower birth rate and an ageing population which exacerbate the poverty that drives people away. Roughly 56 per cent of the population are female, compared with 51 per cent in 1979. Half the population lives on pensions and government handouts.

“Our most important resources are our human resources, and today we are losing them,” says Hranush Kharatyan, the Government’s adviser on demography. “If nothing changes, we expect a disaster in the next 40 to 50 years.”

She says that the only solution is to eradicate government corruption. “Young people must be free to develop businesses, to become government officials and to know that if there is a trial, it will be fair,” she says. Only then will emigrants start to return for good.

There are examples of successful “repatriates”, such as the Foreign Minister who left America in 1992 with a master’s degree in international law and diplomacy. “There was an inner force within me to return to Armenia, to be here in historic times. I wanted to be present at its creation,” he says. Two years later, his wife and two children joined him. “We’re here to stay,” he says.

But for the moment, that is the luxury of successful émigrés. Back in Sasunik, Mrs Simonyan has a visitor. Hamlet, her husband’s nephew, has taken a holiday from his job in Moscow to see his wife and children, who stayed behind.

He would like to come back, he says. It is tough living in Moscow, where Caucasians are often abused by police. But it is still better than Sasunik, where people scrape by on $500 a year from growing grapes. He can earn four times that in Moscow. “What can I do?” says Hamlet as he plays with his children in a house with no electricity, no gas, and running water for only an hour a day. “It’s Armenians’ destiny to live outside their homeland.”

ARMENIAN BEAUTY ANUSH GRIGORIAN 19, CROWNED QUEEN OF TOURISM 2004 IN CHINA
(www.armenianow.com )The Goris teenager (who was runner up for Miss Armenia 2003) was chosen over more than 30 other beauties in the competition that is part of a tourism expo held for the past 11 years.

Since independence, Armenian girls have entered dozens of pageants, but this is the first time one has come home with the top prize.

“All this was so unexpected to me,” said excited Anush upon her return to Armenia. “I took part in the contest very unexpectedly being late for 10 days, and my victory, just like my participation was a surprise.”

For winning, Miss Tourism 2004 receives $10,000 and a cup made of China porcelain. Second place went to a girl from Singapore, third to Estonia and fourth, to Russia.
Anush says she was proud to be Armenia’s ambassador in China.

“My victory made many learn about Armenia, that it was the first to adopt Christianity and is attractive for visiting,” she says. “Besides we were representing our values. I was the face of Armenia, but even the name of our country was unknown to many, and everybody was asking me where Armenia is.”

Contestants were judged on appearance, ability to communicate (Anush speaks four languages), and other merits.

The beauty queen, a student at Brusov State Linguistics University, says pageants are just a hobby for her, and that upon her graduation she’ll pursue her major interest, journalism.

Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty
11 November 2004

Iraqi Armenians Link Explosion Near Armenian Church in Baghdad to Armenia's Intention to Send troops to Iraq

By Anna Saghabalian

Representatives of Armenian community in Iraq believe that the suspected car bomb explosion near the Armenian Church St Grigor the Illuminator in Baghdad could be connected with Armenia's plan to send non-combat troops to Iraq.

Armenia is planning to dispatch a small unit of Armenian non-combat troops (50 military doctors, sappers and truck drivers) to Iraq. But the parliament has still to approve the decision.

Iraqi Armenian community leaders urged the Armenian government not to send any troops to Iraq, warning that the attacks against 25 thousand strong Iraqi-Armenians are almost imminent.

The director of Armenian school in Baghdad Tsovinar Ishkhanian told RFERL on Thursday that children were just leaving the school building when the explosion took place. The school has about 200 pupils.

Fortunately there were no casualties, Iskhanian said. The Armenian school in Baghdad will be closed in coming weeks, until security situation in the area improves, Iskhanian told RFE/RL.

Tsovinar Ishkhanian added that recently the Christian Churches in Iraq have become a target of frequent attack by insurgents. The Armenian community leaders believes that the attacks against the Armenian Church is linked to Armenia's intention to send troops to Iraq. She warned that if Armenian troops arrive in Iraq the attacks on Iraqi Armenians will intensify.

Fish Farm Blues…

Yesterday I got a call from by driver telling me that someone from the Hadrut government had come to the lake to take measurements and informed my guard that the city mayor of Hadrut, Vano, is taking over our lake.

I went down to the Martuni mayor to see if he could help me to make sense of this matter.

The facts that I had in hand was that almost 3 years ago, I presented a written request to the Martuni regional minister for the rental of the lake, from a directive from the Prime Minister, who told me that if I want to do fish farming, there is no need to build a lake, we already have a lake that he will give me.

My request was processed and due to the lack of a working law on the rental of water, I was eventually given a verbal directive/agreement from the regional minister to go and work the lake and as soon as the law was in place, all the necessary formal legal documents would be drawn up. He did this after talking to the regional minister of Hadrut, as to the status of the lake.

At that time, one issue came up, which was the Hadrut mayor, Vano had also wanted the lake, but after the Martuni mayor spoke with him, he withdrew any desire for the lake since the Martuni mayor is my friend.

So for the last 2+ years, I have been regularly checking in with the people at the regional ministers office to see if the conditions have been put in place so they could formalize the lake, the last time was at the beginning of October. At that time I was told that the new boundaries of the regions have been drawn up and unfortunately, the boarder between Hadrut and Martuni go right down the center of the lake. They said that it looks like we will have to sign two agreement or get the Prime Minister himself to draw up one agreement, which will be with him and not the regions. They told me they will explore the options and get back to me.

Before I was able to get back to them as I had planned by the middle of this month, I got the news of the Hadrut mayor, Vano, who had told my guard in 2 days he would be sending a new guard.

My consulting with the Martuni mayor ended with us calling the Martuni regional minister, who told me to come meet with him at 3pm. In the mean time, I had tried to call Vano, but his cell phone was unreachable.

I met with the regional minister, who first started out to tell me that it is too bad about Vano renting the lake, but I should have moved faster to get the papers drawn up and it is my fault that this has happened. I was a bit shocked to hear this and asked the regional minister as to what I should have done since his office didn’t know how to move forward and complete a job that we started over 2 years ago?

He called the regional minister of Hadrut to see what had transpired and was given an answer that they had decided to give the lake to Vano. The Martuni regional minister asked him as to how he was able to give a lake since half of it belonged to Martuni and he (the Martuni regional minister) had not given his approval? He said a few more words and hung up the phone.

He told me that Vano is a very difficult man to deal with and it looks like it would be best that I go speak with the Prime Minister about this matter, as it seems the regional minister of Hadrut’s decision is final.

I called the Prime Minister’s office to make an appointment, to be told that I would have to call back in a week to see when I could meet with him.

Due to the 2 day notice that Vano gave my guard, I once again tried to call Vano to find out if in fact everything I am being told is legal and final.

After a few tries, I was successful in contacting Vano. At first he seemed very defensive, so I assured him that if everything he did was legal, then he has nothing to worry about. He said that he had asked the regional minister of Hadrut if anyone has a request to rent the lake and he was told no. He wrote a request in May of 2004 and was now given approval and effectively is now in control of the lake.

I told him that I had a request from a couple years back with the Martuni regional ministers office, which was received prior to his request, so I can’t understand how the lake could be his? I added that I have until now spent thousands of dollars to maintain the lake with the understanding that it would be given to me when the laws were in place.

He said that the lake is not part of the Martuni region and the regional minister does not know what he is talking about. He told me the boarder is over a kilometer away from the lake and the whole lake is in Hadrut. He is sorry for the misunderstanding, but it is too late, the lake is his.

I told him that I was waiting for a meeting with the Prime Minister to discuss this matter, as I have done everything by the book and on directives from the government, who should have known better and this whole thing is a slap in the face to me and people like me that come here not knowing all the ins and outs and follow the directions of the people in government who should know. I added that I would call him if I learned anything new.

I went back to see the regional minister with the new information I obtained from Vano and said that for the sake of time, I should try not to meet with the Prime Minister, but meet with his aid, who I had spoken to who instructed me to call back next week.

The regional minister called the aid, told him the reason for my wanting to meet. The aid said that he didn’t understand, the law for rental of water had not yet been adopted and is expected to be adopted on the 16th or 23rd, so there is no way anyone could rent the lake.

So it seems that good old Vano and the people in the Hadrut government are playing games and have in effect created documents that are not legal in order to take my lake away from me.

I tried to call Vano all day today to ask him to wait on sending his guard to my lake, which today I found out he is planning to put Nelson, the fisherman who I use to use that stole fish from me in April 2003 who I pressed charges against, which resulted in him compensating me 12,000 dram. I also want to meet with Vano face to face, see the documents that he claims to have (get copies of them too) and then try to see if he is willing to continue his offer of not wanting the lake, being that I’m the mayor of Martuni’s friend and future Nephew-in-law.

One of the greatest leaders of the 20th century and personification of the Palestinian cause has died.

The world will morn the loss of President Yasser Arafat a man who believed in peace and was recognized as such in 1994, when he was awarded a Nobel Peace prize.

I learned of his death while waiting my turn to visit with the Martuni regional minister. Waiting with me was the head doctor of our military hospital, who asked me if I heard about Arafat’s passing away? I said no, but I am saddened by the news. He asked me why would I be sad, he was a terrorist. I told the good doctor that is only a matter of opinion, as some of the greatest Armenians in modern history were deemed terrorists by many, but are hero’s to us. I added that if Arafat was a terrorist, he was one with humanitarian intentions.

Abu Ammar, you were a great man, who did great work for your people. Though I am not Palestinian, I have a great deal of respect for you and will remember your example for many years to come. May to soil of your motherland lay lightly on you as you rest in peace and may your example live on forever in people who desire freedom and peace.

To the Palestinian people, I send to you my condolences for the loss of your great leader.

I’ve done a little bit of restructuring at my beauty salon and other business ventures. My general manager/accountant, who was the originator for the idea of opening the salon seemed to be the source of conflicts in my life, with her overly eager and unwelcomed need to be helpful in areas where she had no business being involved in. In short, I was having to work more in the area of damage control with issues of business and personal matters than I should because of her.

I had warned her in the summer that she was under no circumstance to be involved in matters of my personal life, this after she repeated something I had told her in confidence, from which started a string of rumors. Then at the end of summer, we had a repeat performance, to which I decided that her behavior was not going to change, so it was time to reduce my liabilities and fire her.

Fortunately for her, when she violated my trust the last time, I was in Yerevan and could not fire her on the spot, which gave me time to reconsidered the option of firing her and out of kindness to make it possible for her to be a more desirable person to be hired elsewhere, I took a business like approach and in the name of good business, I eliminated her job, justifying it as a budget cut. Her last day was Friday, this after giving her a months notice of the elimination of her job, to give her a chance to find another job, which she was unable to.

I have now found an accountant who I will be talking to tomorrow, who use to work at the tax office, but quit her job to care for her daughter, who was born with Down Syndrome. I will only need her to work a few days a month, to keep our books and make sure our taxes and pension fund contributions are paid up, the rest (making payments and purchases), my driver will do.

As for the rest of the work at the salon, my friend who I am leasing the salon building from, his mother Era (who is like a second mother to me), will be working with me to manage.

Though until now and from the first day we opened the salon, we have only had a profit of about $50 a month, from the last couple days of being present at the salon, business has picked up quite a bit. Though I don’t suspect my former accountant/general manager of any wrong doing (other than maybe not doing), it seems that what people have been telling me of my employees not reporting all the work they do, could be true.

From the register they keep of the income at the salon, which is just a book that sometimes reflects each individual transaction and other times just a total income of the day, it does not seem to reflect accurately everything. I know of one transaction that took place a few days ago for 2,500 drams ($5) by my driver’s wife, which didn’t seem to make it in the books. From what I understand and from what I’ve seen over the last few months, my accountant/general manager when she was present, sat in her office playing computer games or watched television and didn’t pay much attention to who was coming and going to the salon and keeping good control of the income.

I guess in time and with more control of the comings and goings of the salon with the daily presents of Era, we will see if there is an increase in profits or not. One thing I have already done is print up a receipt book so every transaction is recorded properly.

Another thing Era and I are discussing to increase business is to hire another hairdresser (she would also act as a safety net for use if the present one quit or if we had to fire her). The woman that is interested in joining us has a beauty salon near the bazaar. One of her reasons for wanting to join us is that not only are we looking for a second person, but because she will soon have to relocate her business which is one of those temporary tin booths. It will be more profitable for her to join us and of course for us it will be beneficial, as she is the popular hairdresser of the older folks in Martuni.

Anyway, tomorrow is the first day of business with our new manager Era, who my employees don’t know about yet, so I have to be present to hand over control to her and introduce the change to those she will be managing.

SERIOUS STAFF CHANGES TO BE EXPECTED IN ARMENIA'S STATE ADMINISTRATION SYSTEM IN NEXT 10 DAYS


YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 6. ARMINFO. One should expect serious chances in Armenia's state administration system in the next 10 days - the Friday dismissal of the chief of the National Security Service Karlos Petrossyan was the first swallow, says the leader of the New Times party Aram Karapetyan.

Karapetyan says that the president started the staff changes from the wrong end. The situation at the justice, transport, ecology and education ministries is much worse. As for Petrossyan he was hardly forced to resign - he must have got tired of fruitless efforts to push through some reforms in his department. Now the question is who will replace him.

I got a couple of text message on my cell phone from Karabakh Telecom, the first on 04 Nov 2004 at 19:56:13, which read: “Hayastani Hanrapetutyunum Karabakh Teleconin tramadrvel e bjjayin kapi carayutyunneri matucman licenza. Harganqnerov, Tnorinutjun.” and then at 20:12:04 I got the second message which read: “Karabagh Telecom official got a license to operate the second GSM Network in the Republic of Armenia. Best Regards, The management.”

When you read the following story, keep in mind that Karabakh Telecom (KT) rolled into Karabagh 3 years ago and before they had a signed agreement, they were already installing a cellular phone network. A few months later, they were give the telecommunication network to operate. The Artsakh president announced KT’s presents in the country, stating that he has not allowed the same mistake to take place as they did in Armenia, with a monopoly, but in fact the “licenza” (license) that they were given by the Prime Minister, gave them what equates to a 30 year monopoly on all communication in Artsakh.

For KT to be awarded a lucrative agreement to operate the second cellular phone system in Armenia without any competition, does not surprise me and I would go so far as to say that high ranking government officials had much to profit from this deal going as it has.


RFE/RL Armenia Report - 11/05/2004

Government Tight-Lipped On Choice Of New Mobile Operator

By Ruzanna Stepanian

The government declined on Friday to provide a clear explanation of its controversial decision to choose Armenia's second mobile phone operator without a transparent and competitive bidding.

Transport and Communications Minister Andranik Manukian, normally accessible for reporters, refused to comment, referring all inquiries to the press service of his ministry. The ministry spokeswoman, Tamar Ghalechian, told RFE/RL that the hitherto unknown firm K-Telecom was granted the lucrative license because of its Lebanese owners' positive' track record in Nagorno-Karabakh. They have run the Armenian-controlled region's telephone network for the last three years.

Ghalechian confirmed that K-Telecom was the only bidder in a `tender' formally called and administered by the government at its weekly session on Thursday. He could not say why it was arranged so hastily and why the government did not hold a genuine bidding that might have resulted in more attractive bids.

The decision came less than one day after ministers approved a compromise agreement to settle their long-running disputes with ArmenTel, Armenia's dominant telecom operator. Under the terms of the deal negotiated by Justice Minister David Harutiunian, ArmenTel will abandon its legal monopoly on mobile telephony in exchange for a string of other government concessions. One of them stipulates that only one alternative wireless operator will be allowed to operate in Armenia until 2009.

The Communications Ministry spokeswoman said K-Telecom has pledged to put in place a wireless network covering Yerevan and surrounding areas by the end of 2005 and extend it to the rest of Armenia within the next two years. She said the company hopes to attract 50,000 subscribers during the first year of its operations.

As of mid-August there were only 140,000 cellular phone users in Armenia. The figure pales in comparison with similar statistics in the two other South Caucasus states. Azerbaijan boasted 870,000 such users in 2002, while Georgia had 522,300 of them as of last year.

Since there has been so much talk about deployment of troops to Iraq, I decided to surf the web in search of where various countries have deployed troops, soon loosing interest and coming across some letters to sites that support persons in the military.

On one site there was a letter which stated “…I'm particularly pleased to know that there are many people who appreciate what our fine men and women have done (and continue to do) to protect our way of life.”

It really made me wonder about what the function of a military is and why we need them?

Growing up in America and learning about liberty and justice for all in school, while saying the pledge of allegiance. I always assumed that military forces were for protecting boarders so one is not invaded by another military force. I guess that is one function and most obvious one thinks of when your 7 years old. I even get the feeling that most American who are adults think this same way today.

Then I come to Armenia and see a military in action, functioning in a way at the age of 7 I though most suits a military, which is to protect our boarders and nothing more.

So when I hear a military having the function of “protect[ing] our way of life,” and then seeing what is going on in the world outside of the United States, it really gives me a whole new outlook on how things in this world really are and that the only liberty and justice is for those with the biggest and most aggressive military force, who can protect and secure a way of life for it’s people.

You know what is really sad for me? That people know these aggressive actions are wrong, but in the name of possible economic and political security, leaders of the world are ready to prostitute themselves and their people, forgetting about morality for the sake of staying on the good side of the winning team and in hopes getting something in the end.

In Armenia’s case, our leaders feel in debt to America for providing $1.5 billion in “aid” and want to continue to benefit from that friendship by kissing Americas ass.

The reality is that Armenia’s self-profiting leaders made some very bad decisions in the early days of independence and instead of looking to Armenia’s internal power for creating an economically stable and semi-self-sufficient country by means of tapping into its intellectual and industrial potential, it somehow tricked itself and followed its emotional side and elected to side with people who lead it down the path of dependency on foreign bodies. These are people who until today, beat the patriotic drum and use peoples emotions to stay in power.

I have heard my whole life that no one helps out if they don’t have something to gain from helping and sure as can be, for the most part, those that have helped Armenia up until now have proven to have only interests in their own well being and profit, not just Americans, but Armenians too.

Today America has re-elected George W. Bush, as did somehow Armenia “re-elect” Robert Kocharian. For me, the two of them are not all that different in terms of their ability to lead or being the only available leader to choose from. Only difference I see is that Bush has more the power behind him to rape foreign bodies to suck off of so his people’s way of life is protected, where Kocharian at this time only has the power to rape his own people (including the Diaspora) to suck off of so his and his clans way of life is protected. Anyway I look at it, they both suck and the next 4 years are going to be difficult, as well as the years to follow.

On a semi unrelated note, did anyone notice the vote count in Washington D.C.? Kerry got 90%. What does that tell you? Who are the registered voters in D.C.? Could they be those people who best know who and what Bush is?

EURASIA INSIGHT

ARMENIAN DEPLOYMENT IN IRAQ HAMPERED BY DOMESTIC OPPOSITION
Emil Danielyan 11/05/04

President Robert Kocharian’s administration in Armenia appears to have pushed back plans to dispatch a contingent of non-combat troops to Iraq. The planned deployment has generated determined domestic opposition, with critics of the proposal cautioning that joining the US-led coalition could endanger the small ethnic Armenian community in Iraq.

Yerevan made what looked like a formal commitment to join the Iraq mission during President Robert Kocharian’s official visit to Poland in early September. The Armenian military contingent would be largely symbolic -- comprising roughly 50 military personnel, including doctors, de-mining experts and truck drivers – and would serve under Polish command. Poland, a staunch US ally, leads a multinational division stationed in south-central Iraq.

Since the initial announcement, little progress has been made toward deployment. Government officials announced in September that military personnel would be dispatched before the end of the year. But observers in Yerevan now wonder whether the government can meet this deadline.

A prerequisite for deployment is an inspection visit to Iraq by an Armenian military delegation. The visit was originally slated for late September. However, Defense Ministry spokesman, Seyran Shahsuvarian, said on November 3 that such a mission has yet to take place. Shahsuvarian declined to specify a reason for the delay, and would not speculate on when the mission would occur.

Armenia’s parliament, meanwhile, has not received a formal request from the government to authorize the troop deployment -- something that is required under the Armenian constitution. The National Assembly ratified earlier this year an inter-governmental agreement with Kuwait that regulates the movements of Armenian military personnel through the Gulf state, which serves as the main logistical base for all foreign troops deploying to Iraq.

Helping to explain the existing uncertainty is the fact that Kocharian’s deployment plans have faced strong domestic opposition. Kocharian critics maintain that the presences of an Armenian military force in Iraq could prompt Iraqi insurgents to target the country’s Armenian community, estimated at about 25,000, for reprisals. The insurgents have already captured and killed dozens of citizens of countries participating in the "coalition of the willing," or otherwise cooperating with it.

Among those opposed to the Iraq mission is Armenia’s biggest opposition group, the Justice alliance, along with at least two dozen non-governmental organizations. In late September, NGO representatives issued a joint statement, cautioning that the consequences of participation could be severe. "We risk turning a community of 25,000 people into hostages," one of its signatories and a prominent environmentalist, Karine Danielian, warned. Iraqi Armenians have themselves exhorted Yerevan not to send troops. Their spiritual leader, Archbishop Avak Asadurian, expressed their concerns in separate letters to President Robert Kocharian and the Armenian parliament leadership.

Significantly, two senior army generals have recently voiced opposition to deployment plans, marking a rare instance of public questioning of government policy by members of the Armenian army’s top brass. One of them, Deputy Army Chief-of-Staff Enrico Apriamov, implied that the US-led invasion of Iraq had been a mistake.

Concern for the security of the Armenian community was a major reason for the Kocharian government’s refusal to back the Anglo-American invasion of Iraq in early 2003. Armenia welcomed the ensuing overthrow of Saddam Hussein and publicly expressed a desire to "participate in Iraq’s post-war reconstruction" shortly afterward. An Armenian liaison officer was posted at the US Central Command in Florida in late 2003 – a move widely seen as a prelude to the troop dispatch.

The commitment to deployment among Kocharian allies appears to remain strong – at least publicly. In recent televised remarks Defense Minister Serge Sarkisian said that while shares the critics’ security concerns he believes that siding with the United States on Iraq is vital for Armenia’s national interests. Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian, for his part, argues that the Armenian participation would be solely "humanitarian" in nature. Another Armenian leader, Parliament Speaker Artur Baghdasarian, noted on October 29 that the United States has provided more than $1.5 billion in economic assistance to Armenia since independence, hinting that Yerevan should somehow express appreciation for the American largesse.

Some pro-government media commentators say deployment should be considered by Armenians as a geopolitical necessity. They note that Armenia’s neighbors, Azerbaijan and Georgia, already have hundreds of troops on the ground in Iraq. Deployment could help Armenia complement its military alliance with Russia with closer security ties with the United States and the West in general. A cosmetic Armenian military presence in Iraq, they add, is important for ensuring US neutrality in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process.

Some are skeptical that a troop contribution will produce greater political and economic support from the United States. Alexander Arzumanian, Armenia’s former pro-Western foreign minister and an opponent of deployment, believes that risks far outweigh the possible geopolitical dividends. "I just don’t see anything tangible we can get now in return for putting at risk the lives of a large number of Armenians," Arzumanian told EurasiaNet.

Ultimately, it may turn out that decisions made in Poland will influence Armenia’s final decision on deployment. Polish leaders are pondering whether to scale down its 2,500-strong military force in Iraq, or even withdraw it altogether by the end of 2005. Polish Defense Minister Jerzy Szmajdzinski called for a complete troop pullout in a newspaper interview last month. Although other officials in Warsaw, notably President Aleksander Kwasniewski, were quick to disavow the statement, continued Polish military presence in Iraq is now in serious doubt.

Armenia’s Prime Minister Andranik Markarian had that in mind when he told reporters recently, "After clarifying some questions we may go ahead or not go ahead [with the deployment]. Everything will depend on the situation."

Editor’s Note: Emil Danielyan is a Yerevan-based journalist and political analyst.