ARMENIAN POLITICAL STANDOFF DRAGS ON AS OPPOSITION SHUNS PARLIAMENT
EurasiaNet.org
8/31/04
Eurasia Insight
**
By Emil Danielyan
Armenian opposition leaders recently announced they would prolong their boycott of parliament. The announcement appeared to dash President Robert Kocharian's hopes of putting to rest questions about his administration's legitimacy.
Kocharian and his critics have been at odds since the 2003 presidential election, which was tainted by numerous voting irregularities. The defeated opposition candidate, Stepan Demirchian, has refused to recognize the election results. To draw attention to their complaints, Demirchian and other opposition leaders have maintained a boycott of the legislature. Opposition MPs have already refrained from participating in parliamentary sessions for seven months.
On August 27, the executive board of the opposition Justice alliance, headed by Demirchian, decided to continue the boycott during the next legislative session. The alliance bloc's key ally, the National Unity Party (AMK), is expected to follow suit. Justice and the AMK are the only opposition forces represented in Armenia's National Assembly, holding 23 of its 131 seats.
Justice leaders complain that Kocharian's administration has not met any of their demands. "None of the reasons for our walkout from the National Assembly has been addressed," one of them, Victor Dallakian, said, singling out the authorities' refusal to hold a "referendum of confidence" in Kocharian.
The Armenian Constitutional Court, in a non-binding decision concerning the 2003 presidential election tally, had suggested a referendum on Kocharian's authority. However, the parliament, which is dominated by Kocharian loyalists, refused in February to debate the issue. That, in turn, prompted Justice alliance and AMK lawmakers to launch their boycott.
The continuation of the boycott keeps open the possibility of renewed street protests against Kocharian. In March, Justice and AMK began organizing mass demonstrations in an effort to force Kocharian's resignation. The protest effort, however, never gained enough political momentum to pose a serious danger to Kocharian's hold on power. Ultimately, the protests ran out of steam in May, amid a government crackdown. The opposition formally abandoned the protest strategy in late spring, but has remained defiant, pledging to continue to fight for "the restoration of constitutional order" in Armenia.
Authorities, mindful of the boycott's negative impact on their democratic credentials abroad, have tried hard to get the opposition minority back to the parliament. They have offered, in particular, to give the opposition a voice in the planned reform of Armenia's constitution and in the writing of new electoral legislation. At the same time, the Kocharian majority has threatened to strip opposition members of their parliament seats. Under Armenian law, parliamentarians can be expelled from the legislature for absenteeism.
The threats do not seem to be taken seriously by Justice and the AMK, though. "Are they so stupid to do that? I don't think so," said Justice lawmaker Shavarsh Kocharian (no relation to the president).
The boycott aside, opposition leaders appear to be struggling to formulate new political tactics. Opposition leaders acknowledge that their spring protest tactic was ineffective and is now being reconsidered. The AMK's outspoken leader Artashes Geghamian, for example, now believes that Armenians should be urged to take to the streets only for a decisive and quick push for power.
Most local analysts doubt the opposition has the ability to organize crowds big enough to force Kocharian's resignation. Still, the government is taking no chances. In late August, officials tightened rules for the holding of public gatherings. Those rules are grounded in a new Armenian law that Council of Europe legal experts believe violates European standards on freedom of assembly.
Meanwhile, there is mounting speculation about Kocharian's political future. The Armenian constitution bars the president from seeking a third term. But some presidential supporters have suggested that Kocharian, now in his second term, could be a candidate in the next presidential vote, scheduled for 2008. A package of constitutional amendments drafted by Kocharian and his top allies would keep the two-term restriction. However, the proposed amendments may still undergo changes before being put to a referendum next year.
Assuming that the 50-year-old Armenian leader will voluntarily quit in 2008, he must already be thinking about a successor. The most obvious choice seems his most trusted lieutenant, Defense Minister Serge Sarkisian. Both men are natives of Nagorno-Karabakh and have worked in tandem ever since moving to high positions in Yerevan in the 1990s.
With his pervasive influence on economic affairs, Sarkisian is widely regarded as the second most powerful official in Armenia. However, his presidential ambitions would not sit well with at least one of the three parties represented in Kocharian's coalition government, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation.
Among other potential successors are parliament speaker Artur Baghdasarian and Justice Minister David Harutiunian. They publicly clashed during a parliament session earlier this year after Baghdasarian accused Harutiunian's ministry of misusing a World Bank loan to strengthen Armenia's judiciary. The accusations were construed by some commentators as a sign of unfolding personal rivalry between the two relatively young politicians.
A new influential government faction, headed by Prosecutor-General Aghvan Hovsepian, has also emerged in recent months. Hovsepian is close to Kocharian, and has cobbled together a strong support base in Aparan, his home region in central Armenia. Hovsepian's ostensibly apolitical organization already has several representatives in the parliament and is aspiring to amass greater political clout. A leading Yerevan daily, Haykakan Zhamanak, has described him as another potential presidential nominee.
The presidential succession question has not generated much interest among ordinary Armenian citizens, many of whom doubt the fairness of the electoral process. As another newspaper, Aravot, editorialized in late August; "The next president will be the one who will have the security structures and gangs of [government-connected] thugs at his disposal."
Editor's Note: Emil Danielyan is a Yerevan-based journalist and political analyst.
http://eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav083104.shtml
EurasiaNet.org
8/31/04
Eurasia Insight
**
By Emil Danielyan
Armenian opposition leaders recently announced they would prolong their boycott of parliament. The announcement appeared to dash President Robert Kocharian's hopes of putting to rest questions about his administration's legitimacy.
Kocharian and his critics have been at odds since the 2003 presidential election, which was tainted by numerous voting irregularities. The defeated opposition candidate, Stepan Demirchian, has refused to recognize the election results. To draw attention to their complaints, Demirchian and other opposition leaders have maintained a boycott of the legislature. Opposition MPs have already refrained from participating in parliamentary sessions for seven months.
On August 27, the executive board of the opposition Justice alliance, headed by Demirchian, decided to continue the boycott during the next legislative session. The alliance bloc's key ally, the National Unity Party (AMK), is expected to follow suit. Justice and the AMK are the only opposition forces represented in Armenia's National Assembly, holding 23 of its 131 seats.
Justice leaders complain that Kocharian's administration has not met any of their demands. "None of the reasons for our walkout from the National Assembly has been addressed," one of them, Victor Dallakian, said, singling out the authorities' refusal to hold a "referendum of confidence" in Kocharian.
The Armenian Constitutional Court, in a non-binding decision concerning the 2003 presidential election tally, had suggested a referendum on Kocharian's authority. However, the parliament, which is dominated by Kocharian loyalists, refused in February to debate the issue. That, in turn, prompted Justice alliance and AMK lawmakers to launch their boycott.
The continuation of the boycott keeps open the possibility of renewed street protests against Kocharian. In March, Justice and AMK began organizing mass demonstrations in an effort to force Kocharian's resignation. The protest effort, however, never gained enough political momentum to pose a serious danger to Kocharian's hold on power. Ultimately, the protests ran out of steam in May, amid a government crackdown. The opposition formally abandoned the protest strategy in late spring, but has remained defiant, pledging to continue to fight for "the restoration of constitutional order" in Armenia.
Authorities, mindful of the boycott's negative impact on their democratic credentials abroad, have tried hard to get the opposition minority back to the parliament. They have offered, in particular, to give the opposition a voice in the planned reform of Armenia's constitution and in the writing of new electoral legislation. At the same time, the Kocharian majority has threatened to strip opposition members of their parliament seats. Under Armenian law, parliamentarians can be expelled from the legislature for absenteeism.
The threats do not seem to be taken seriously by Justice and the AMK, though. "Are they so stupid to do that? I don't think so," said Justice lawmaker Shavarsh Kocharian (no relation to the president).
The boycott aside, opposition leaders appear to be struggling to formulate new political tactics. Opposition leaders acknowledge that their spring protest tactic was ineffective and is now being reconsidered. The AMK's outspoken leader Artashes Geghamian, for example, now believes that Armenians should be urged to take to the streets only for a decisive and quick push for power.
Most local analysts doubt the opposition has the ability to organize crowds big enough to force Kocharian's resignation. Still, the government is taking no chances. In late August, officials tightened rules for the holding of public gatherings. Those rules are grounded in a new Armenian law that Council of Europe legal experts believe violates European standards on freedom of assembly.
Meanwhile, there is mounting speculation about Kocharian's political future. The Armenian constitution bars the president from seeking a third term. But some presidential supporters have suggested that Kocharian, now in his second term, could be a candidate in the next presidential vote, scheduled for 2008. A package of constitutional amendments drafted by Kocharian and his top allies would keep the two-term restriction. However, the proposed amendments may still undergo changes before being put to a referendum next year.
Assuming that the 50-year-old Armenian leader will voluntarily quit in 2008, he must already be thinking about a successor. The most obvious choice seems his most trusted lieutenant, Defense Minister Serge Sarkisian. Both men are natives of Nagorno-Karabakh and have worked in tandem ever since moving to high positions in Yerevan in the 1990s.
With his pervasive influence on economic affairs, Sarkisian is widely regarded as the second most powerful official in Armenia. However, his presidential ambitions would not sit well with at least one of the three parties represented in Kocharian's coalition government, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation.
Among other potential successors are parliament speaker Artur Baghdasarian and Justice Minister David Harutiunian. They publicly clashed during a parliament session earlier this year after Baghdasarian accused Harutiunian's ministry of misusing a World Bank loan to strengthen Armenia's judiciary. The accusations were construed by some commentators as a sign of unfolding personal rivalry between the two relatively young politicians.
A new influential government faction, headed by Prosecutor-General Aghvan Hovsepian, has also emerged in recent months. Hovsepian is close to Kocharian, and has cobbled together a strong support base in Aparan, his home region in central Armenia. Hovsepian's ostensibly apolitical organization already has several representatives in the parliament and is aspiring to amass greater political clout. A leading Yerevan daily, Haykakan Zhamanak, has described him as another potential presidential nominee.
The presidential succession question has not generated much interest among ordinary Armenian citizens, many of whom doubt the fairness of the electoral process. As another newspaper, Aravot, editorialized in late August; "The next president will be the one who will have the security structures and gangs of [government-connected] thugs at his disposal."
Editor's Note: Emil Danielyan is a Yerevan-based journalist and political analyst.
http://eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav083104.shtml
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